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Phil Steele’s Look at the Ducks

July 16th, 2008

By RW, July 16, 2008

I had a chance over the weekend to browse through Phil Steele’s 2008 College Football Preview. It’s an amazing magazine - not easy to look at for the graphic designer in me, but tons and tons of information.

Here are a few things I pulled out about the Ducks.

TOP INDIVIDUAL UNITS:
This is his rating of a teams’ individual units. The Duck’s units that were listed in his top 25 are below:

Running Backs: #24

Receivers: #20

Offensive Line: #13
Steele’s Comments: A mobile QB like Dennis Dixon helps the O-line stats and with untested QBs in two late games they allowed 9 of the teams 24 sacks. The RB’s avg 5.6 ypc rush. This year they have 3 starters back from one of the Pac-10’s top O-lines.

Defensive Line: #13
Steele’s Comments: The Ducks were decent up front last year allowing 3.6 ypc rush and will be stronger in ‘08. They do lose two starters but have good size in the middle and add two top notch JUCOs there. On the outside, Nick Reed had 12 sacks and 10.5 tfl and Will Tukuafu had 4.5 sacks in his first year and will be stronger. Kenny Rowe (PS#19) was a backup as a true frosh.

Defensive Backs: #1
Steele’s Comments: The Oregon Ducks have had 4 straight top 20 finishes in my Pass D rankings (see below), including last year when they were #8, snagging 20 interceptions. Their excellent CB combo of Walter Thurmond III and Jairus Byrd both return and they combined for 12 int and 33 pbu last year, while 1st Team Pac-10 ROV Patrick Chung led the team in tackles.

EXPERIENCE RATINGS
Here’s how Phil breaks down how experienced a team is: 3 Points for every SR starter, 2.5 for additional SRs in two-deep, 2 for every JR starter, 1.5 for JRs in two-deep, 1 for SOPH starters, .5 for soph in two deep. Subtracted 1 for every FR starter, -.5 for every freshman in two-deep.

Obviously, by Phil’s ratings, Oregon State has the most experienced team going into 2008. If experience is as important as they say, the Huskies could be in trouble this year.

2007 PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE
Here’s how the Ducks (and a few notable Pac-10 teams) finished last year in Phil’s Pass Efficiency Defense Ratings.

Arizona St #5
USC #6
Oregon #8
Oregon State #10

Here is Phil’s comment: …Oregon was very similar in that they ranked #86 in the NCAA Pass D rankings allowing 249 ypg. My ratings had them ranked #8 as they took on mostly pass happy offenses of the Pac-10 and allowed just 53% completions with a 20-20 ratio. The Ducks took on two Top 10 offenses which average a combined 314 ypg and held them to just 48% completions. They also won 7 games by 21 or more so gave us some meaningless garbage yards late which I factor

2008 SURPRISE TEAMS: Oregon #10

On his website, Phil has Oregon is #10 on his list of surprise teams in 2008 (California is #9).

Phil describes these as the ‘teams not ranked in the top 10 that have the best shot at the title game.‘ He had the Ducks in this same spot last year as well.

2008 PROJECTED DEPTH CHART

Here is Phil’s projected depth chart for the 2008 Ducks.

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THE CONVERSATION

  1. BRENDAN Says:

    July 16th, 2008 at 5:07 pm

    No JJ at running back? I’m not sure I buy into a depth with Crenshaw over JJ.

  2. duck1fan Says:

    July 16th, 2008 at 5:14 pm

    I think for starters, can Phil at least get the correct players in there respective positions please? If he is ranking these players from top to bottom I have to totally disagree! He has Costa as running back and no JJ @ running back. Masoli isn’t even mentioned on the depth chart either! What about our big transfer from Georgia at tight end? It does paint a little bit of an exciting picture of what’s “possible” to happen this year! He has DT in front of chris harper. Which is also not the case. I know I probably am missing some other mistakes but that was enough to get me going. Regardless of his mistakes I think with Costa, Blount, Holland and others added to the lineup, this year will be a pleasent suprise!! Even with us playing “all” of our tough games on the road. Go Ducks!!

  3. sunriver-duck Says:

    July 16th, 2008 at 5:15 pm

    That must be a typo. Looks like JJ is supposed to be where Costa is listed under Running Backs.

  4. Pierce Says:

    July 16th, 2008 at 6:19 pm

    Yeah, that’s gotta be JJ.

  5. SuperDuck Says:

    July 20th, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    I like Phil’s assessment, for the most part, but he does need to check his roster again. I’m sure that he’s got his hands full with 117 FBS teams.

    My question is to whoever’s reviewing this. “Am I just bass ackwards or is Oregon State the LEAST experienced and Washington MOST?”

    If they’re awarding experience points for each class then Oregon State SHOULD be at the bottom because they lost their entire defensive front seven, as well as Yvenson Bernard, etc.

    Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t see it how it’s being called.

  6. rdub Says:

    July 20th, 2008 at 4:15 pm

    SuperDuck,

    Oregon State, according to Phil, is the MOST experienced team in the Pac-10 this year. One page 311 of his magazine, he lists this and says: “This list was compiled in April and there have been some changes to the 2 deep in May which might not be accounted for, but it will give you an idea of the most experienced and least experienced teams in the NCAA this year.”

    -Ryan, DSN

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